29
THE WAR ON AGING
SPECULATIONS ON SOME FUTURE CHAPTERS IN THE
NEVER-ENDING STORY OF HUMAN LIFE EXTENSION
Aubrey de Grey, Ph.D.
Until the 1800s, over a quarter of those born, even in wealthy
nations, died before their first birthday and a huge number
of women died in childbirth. The great French doctor Louis
Pasteur can therefore be credited without much argument as
the person who has extended more lives by more years than
anyone in history, by virtue of his introduction of the germ
theory and the consequent appreciation of the importance
of hygiene in medical care and, subsequently, of the power
of antibiotics. [1] (Had the medical establishment been less
robust in their suppression of new ideas, Pasteur would have
been preceded by over a decade by Ignaz Semmelweis [2];
I return to this point towards the end of this essay.) This
insight resulted, in the industrialized world, in a reduction by
an order of magnitude in infant mortality over a period of a
few decades. [3] It would doubtless have arrived eventually,
but we have no idea how long it might have been delayed
had Pasteur not existed. If we guess at a ten-year delay, which
is less than what Semmelweiss suppression caused, we can
conclude that tens of millions of people who would have died